TERRORISM & THE BUSINESS WORLD —AN UPDATE

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.481

Global Intelligence News

by B. Raman

( A talk delivered at a symposium organised by the Birla Institute of Management Technology at Delhi on December 13,2008)

Terrorists target human beings—combatants and non-combatants (civilians)— as well as capabilities—economic and strategic.

2. Till the 1980s, they focused more on targeting human beings. Targeting of capabilities—-which may or may not cause human fatalities—- came into vogue in the 1980s, when the Irish Republican Army (IRA) carried out explosions in London’s financial district.

3. Targeting of capabilities does not create the same kind of public revulsion against the terrorists as the targeting of human beings does. Whereas the after-effects of the targeting of human beings remain localised in the area where they were targeted, the impact of the targeting of capabilities has a ripple effect far beyond the area where the act of terrorism was carried out.
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PAKISTAN DETAINS LET’S KHALID SHEIKH MOHAMMAD?

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR–PAPER NO. 480

Global Intelligence News

B.RAMAN

Pakistani media and some foreign news agencies, including the Associated Press, reported on December 8,2008, that helicopter-borne Pakistani security forces raided a camp of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) located at a place called Shawai, on the outskirts of Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), on December 7 and detained 12 inmates of the camp, including Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, reportedly the operational chief of the LET.

2.Major-Gen.Athar Abbas, a spokesman of the army, while briefing the media, confirmed that the security forces had carried out ” an intelligence-led operation against a banned militant organisation and carried out several arrests” , but he did not identify the organisation as the LET. Nor did he confirm that Lakhvi was among those detained.
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INDIA/PAKISTAN: Hoax Call Hyped by Media – Get Hostilities to Brink

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Beena Sarwar

KARACHI, Dec 7 (IPS) – A hoax phone call from India to Pakistan’s President threatening military reprisals in the aftermath of the terrorist attack on Mumbai city, hyped up by media, brought the nuclear-armed neighbours close to conflict.

However, analysts believe that the hostilities arising from the attack and the media hype can still be contained.

The three-day standoff in Mumbai was barely over on Nov. 28 when the late-evening phone call was made, supposedly from India’s External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, to Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari. Because of the heightened tensions, his staff bypassed routine procedures and transferred the call to Zardari.

The imposter ”directly threatened to take military action if Islamabad failed to immediately act against the supposed perpetrators of the Mumbai killings” according to a report in the daily Dawn, Pakistan of Dec. 6, which reveals that the call was a hoax that sent Pakistan into a state of ‘high alert’ last weekend, ”eyeing India for possible signs of military aggression”.
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MUMBAI: ANSWERS TO READERS’ QUESTIONS

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.478

Global Intelligence News

B.RAMAN

(In this article, I will try to answer some of the questions, which I have received from readers of my articles on the Mumbai terrorist strikes)

1.How strong is the evidence of the involvement of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) ?

It is very strong.The evidence collected till now is partly direct and partly circumstantial. The direct evidence has come from the interrogation of one of the perpetrators (Mohammad Ajmal Amir, son of Mohammad Amir Imam, of village Faridkot in the Okara District of Pakistan’s Punjab), who has been arrested and who is under interrogation. He has given details of the entire conspiracy and the involvement of the LET in it. The circumstantial evidence has come from the interrogation of four Indian Muslims arrested by the Uttar Pradesh Police in February,2008, during their investigation of the terrorist attack on a camp of the Central Reserve Police Force in Rampur on January 1,2008. They had reportedly spoken of the plans of the LET for future terrorist strikes, one of which was planned in Mumbai. One of them, Faheem Ahmed Ansari, was carrying a fake Pakistani passport and a list and maps of nine targets in southern Mumbai, including the Taj Mahal Hotel and other sites attacked on November 26,2008. Some other circumstantial evidence has also come from technical intelligence reportedly collected by the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) in September,2008, which spoke of the plans of the LET to launch a sea-borne terrorist strike in Mumbai.
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U.S.: Mumbai Massacre Seen as Major Blow to Regional Strategy

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Jim Lobe*

WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (IPS) – A week after the massacre of more than 170 people by armed militants in Mumbai, U.S. officials are scrambling to prevent the incident from blowing up into a full-fledged confrontation between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.

While Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spent Wednesday in meetings with Indian leaders in New Delhi warning them that any retaliation could result in ”unintended consequences or difficulties”, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Armed Forces, Adm. Michael Mullen, was in Islamabad pressing top Pakistani civilian and military officials to fully cooperate with any investigation.

He also urged them to crack down hard against any groups — almost certainly the officially banned Lashka-e-Taiba (LeT), according to government and independent analysts here — found to be responsible.
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Two Analysts of Global Terrorism Comment on Mumbai

Rohan Gunaratna and Larry C. Johnson

Commentary Republished on the Global News Blog

Learning from the Mumbai Tragedy

Rohan Gunaratna

The coordinated simultaneous attack in Mumbai on November 27, 2008 was a classic Al Qaeda-style attack. Although not perpetrated by Osama bin Laden’s group, the attackers and their masterminds were influenced by Al Qaeda’s methodology and ideology. The terrorists selected high profile, symbolic and strategic targets. It was a mass fatality – mass casualty attack where the terrorists were killing to kill and die. The attack primarily targeted India but also singled out Americans, its allies and friends.

The subcontinental terrorists that staged an al Qaeda-style attack in Mumbai could attack again. Although the terrorists have been neutralized, the masterminds that planned and the infrastructure that was used to prepare the attack in India’s financial capital is intact. The ideology that motivated the attackers and generated the support, still needs to be dismantled.

Asian terrorism is on the rise. The epicentre of international terrorism has now shifted to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, a region straddling India and China. Today, the world’s top four countries that suffer from terrorism are Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and India. Unless, India and Pakistan work together both these countries will suffer heavily from terrorism in the coming years.

The terrorist attack in Mumbai should serve as a reminder to governments that terrorism is a global threat. Unless governments understand that terrorism is a transnational threat and they must work together to counter it, they will suffer from it. Although India has a long history of fighting terrorism and insurgency, Mumbai took India by surprise. Every successful terrorist attack is an intelligence failure. India will need to restructure its security and intelligence apparatus as well as its quick reaction forces. Their performance fell behind the scale of threat India faced on November 27-29, 2008. The spearhead of effective and efficient counter terrorism is intelligence. The key to fighting the current and the emerging wave of terrorism will rest on India’s future ability to develop sound and timely intelligence and developing liaison partnerships for intelligence sharing. The Indian security and intelligence services failed on both these counts.

India should strengthen its coverage of threat groups at home by investing in high grade -high quality intelligence collection and overseas by building intelligence sharing partnerships with its neighbours. Instead of accusing Pakistan for every attack on Indian soil, Indian leaders must understand that both India and Pakistan face a common threat. Without building a robust relationship with Pakistan, India has been strengthening its cooperation with Israel and the U.S. As the regional power, India must take the lead and reach out to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka and share counter terrorism intelligence. It will require a visionary Indian leader to understand the change in paradigm after September 11, 2001, and build the structures to protect India from within and overseas.

Mumbai is a wakeup call for countries and people who have not taken the threat of terrorism and extremism seriously. Terrorism is the most serious national security challenge confronting the world today. To win, building skill and will at all levels of government is paramount. There is no better investment than educating leaders, including leaders at the highest level of government. India should call for a summit of Asian leaders to better understand the emerging threat in Asia and develop a plan of action aimed at reducing and managing the threat.

The terrorist attack has major implications for global security and for the new Obama Administration. If India threatens Pakistan, Islamabad will withdraw its 100,000 troops on Pakistan’s troubled border with Afghanistan, where Al Qaeda and other threat groups are based. Such a troop redeployment will dramatically increase the threat to Afghanistan and to global security. The terrorists will benefit from such a relocation of Pakistani troops from tribal Pakistan to the Indian border.One could question if the terrorists had conceived this attack with such intentions to ease the pressure on Al Qaeda, Pakistani Taliban and its associated groups. U.S. should mediate the disputes between India and Pakistan and help build a counterterrorism partnership between these two nuclear rivals.

Larry C. Johnson responds:

“If the reports from survivors of the Taj are correct, then it is highly unlikely this was a homegrown Indian group. The fact that staff of the hotel were collaborating with the attackers tells me these were intelligence assets recruited and put in place. I don’t think it is mere coincidence that Ali Zardari announces the Paks are going to disband the political wing of ISI and the next thing you know all hell breaks loose in Mumbai.”

Larry C. Johnson’s more detailed commentary follows in the article included below.

Mumbai Update and Observations

Read the article in its orignal form on No Quarter

By Larry Johnson
Email: larry_johnson@earthlink.net
Site: http://NoQuarterUSA.net

While relations between India and Pakistan are understandably strained in the wake of this week’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, Pakistan is making the right moves to reassure India that it is serious about dismantling the terrorist infrastructure that exists in Pakistan. Pakistan’s Prime Minister is in India and expressing support for India and condemning the attacks. Pakistani President Zardari also has directed the head of Pakistan’s intelligence service to go to Mumbai and assist with the investigation. This follows on the heels of his directive last week to dismantle the political wing of ISI.

I suspect many of you may not know what the hell I am talking about. So here is a Reader’s Digest summary/condensed version:

A portion of Pakistan’s ISI (i.e., it’s version of the CIA and FBI combined) has provided direct support, financing and training to radical Islamists. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, for example, the ISI helped organize, arm and train mujahedin fighting the Soviets. Some in Pakistan’s intelligence and military services see the support to the Islamic groups as a tool to help them confront neighbors they view as a threat–India and Iran in particular. The status of the Kashmir region (northwest India, northeast Pakistan) is a major focus for the terrorist activities of the Islamic extremists. Besides worrying about the Kashmir, the ISI, for example, also helped the Taliban get up and running.

The ISI, or at least elements in the ISI, worked directly with Bin Laden and his band:

In 2003, the US government declassified 32 documents relating to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. These included secret memos from the State Department and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). One of the DIA documents noted, “[Osama] bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network was able to expand under the safe sanctuary extended by Taliban following Pakistan directives. If there is any doubt on that issue, consider the location of bin Laden’s camp targeted by US cruise missiles, Zahawa. Positioned on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, it was built by Pakistani contractors, funded by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] directorate … If this was later to become bin Laden’s base, then serious questions are raised by the early relationship between bin Laden and Pakistan’s ISI.”

In 1998, US warships in the Arabian Sea launched cruise missiles on “al-Qaeda” training camps in Afghanistan. However, at least one of the targeted camps was a HuM facility, run in conjunction with Pakistani military and intelligence officials. According to the US 9-11 Commission, many HuM volunteers and a few Pakistani intelligence personnel were killed during the missile attack. Soon after the strike, Khalil called a press conference in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad and threatened the US that his men would attack Americans in their homes, just like the Americans attacked them (HuM) in their own backyard. HuM continued to operate training camps in eastern Afghanistan until US air strikes destroyed them during the fall of 2001. In 2003, HuM began using the name Jamiat ul-Ansar.

There is essentially a civil war in Pakistan. The Pakistani Government for the most part condemns and rejects terrorism and the Islamic extremists responsible for this activity. Yet, elements within the government, provide direct support to such groups and view them as an element of Pakistani national security policy.

The people who carried out the multiple attacks this week in Mumbai almost certainly were trained in camps inside Pakistan controlled by Islamic extremists (Harakat ul Mujahedin or Lashkar e Tayiba) and supported, at least tacitly, by elements of the ISI and/or Pakistani Army.

Here is what we I conclude based on the events so far:

1. The preparation for this attack was very sophisticated. There was significant prior planning to gather intelligence about the hotels, restaurants, train station, and the Jewish apartment building. This was not spur of the moment. The information on the various sites was gathered in advance and assembled into a coordinated plan.

2. The young men who carried out these coordinated strikes had training and communication support that enabled them to launch these attacks. The training most likely required at least one week and would have incorporated the intelligence about the target sites.

3. The training in marksmanship and explosives was rudimentary. The attackers learned the point and spray method of shooting, which is imprecise and not terribly effective. When we get a final count of the number of attackers and consider what they were capable of carrying in terms of ammunition and grenades, they certainly did not kill anywhere near the number of people they could have if they were highly trained in Close Quarter Battle (CQB). Please do not misunderstand me. What the terrorists have done is terrible and has inflicted unbearable suffering on thousands of families. But this could have been far worse.

4. The Government of India and their police SWAT teams (NSG) are doing a good job of managing an almost impossible situation. Military officers, not police, are more qualified to deal with a situation involving combat at multiple sites. Nonetheless, the police appear to have adapted pretty well. Despite the audacity of the terrorists, the result is going to be as expected–the attackers will be dead or jailed and police and military forces around the world will study the incident and upgrade their capabilities. It is worth noting that the United States has provided India some significant counter terrorism support to the police over the last five years. That training is paying off this week.

5. The media hysteria pronouncing these attacks as the end of the world is just silly. The Indian police are moving methodically to clear the buildings involved in the original attack. They are clearly trying to minimize other civilian casualties. These attacks have disrupted life in Mumbai for this week. But these events also are likely to spark increased vigilance and security operations that will make it more difficult for groups like these to carry out future operations.

The longterm solution to this violence requires dismantling the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and helping India and Pakistan find a peaceful resolution to the Kashmir dispute. India, I believe, will recover fine from these attacks. Pakistan? A much more difficult and dangerous problem. The United States and the rest of the world may have little ability to influence what happens inside Pakistan to tamp down the influence of Islamic extremists. We must try and this will be a significant challenge for Barack Obama’s foreign policy team. The Bush team leaves office having left things in Pakistan worse off than when they took office.

© Copyright 2008 Rohan Gunaratna and Larry C. Johnson. All rights reserved.

About the Authors:

Rohan Gunaratna:

Rohan Gunaratna is Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the S. Rajaratnam School for International Studies, (RSIS), Singapore. The author of “Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror”, Gunaratna debriefed high value detainees, including in Iraq.

Larry C. Johnson

Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an
international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering. Mr. Johnson worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism.

 

 

Image:

The Taj Mahal Hotel Burniing
Source: www.thechetan.com
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INDIA: Mulling Tough Options Against Pakistan

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Analysis by Praful Bidwai

NEW DELHI, Dec 3 (IPS) – United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in the Indian capital Wednesday to try and soothe nerves frayed by last week’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, but is likely to face an uphill task in defusing mounting suspicion and tension between India and Pakistan.

Many Indian policymakers have adopted a hardened posture against Pakistan in the belief that its state agencies, such as the shadowy Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI), were behind the attacks, which have killed nearly 200 people, including 28 foreign nationals.

Conservative commentators have unleashed what is fast becoming a media campaign to demand that India takes serious punitive action against Pakistan for the attacks –to the point of striking at terrorist training camps which Indian spy agencies claim exist across the border.
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AFTER MUMBAI : POINTS FOR ACTION

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.474

Global Intelligence News

B.RAMAN

( This incorporates some of the points coming to my mind, but is by no means a totally comprehensive list. I have deliberately not touched upon the Pakistan dimension. I would like to wait for some more details before commenting on the action that needs to be taken)

POINT 1: Set up a National Commission of professionals with no political agenda, in consultation with the Leader of the Opposition, to enquire into all the major terrorist strikes that have taken place in the Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) since November,2007, and task it to submit its report within four months, with no extensions given. Its charter will be not the investigation of the criminal cases arising from these terrorist strikes, but the investigation of the deficiencies and sins of commission and omission in our counter-terrorism agencies at the Centre and in the States, which made these strikes possible.

POINT 2: Induct proved experts in terrorism and counter-terrorism from the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the State Police and the Army into the R&AW at senior levels. Presently, the R&AW does not have any such expertise at senior levels. Of the four officers at the top of the pyramid, two are generalists, one is an expert in Pakistan (Political) and the other in China (Political).
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Middle East Concerns About India – Pakistan Tensions

Global Intelligence News
Read the Article as Originally Published on Middle East Analyst

By: Meir Javedanfar

30/11/2008

The recent terrorist attacks in India should be viewed with major concern in the Middle East. After the weekend’s events, its a question of when, not if India retaliates against Pakistan.

However such an attack will force Islamabad to pull its forces away from the Afghani border, thus enabling Al Qaeda to expand its operations in Afghanistan.

Furthermore, tensions between India and Pakistan will mean that Barack Obama will have to focus his efforts there, as soon as he enters office, or even before. This could reduce US involvement and focus on the Iranian nuclear program, the situation in Iraq and the Israeli Palestinian peace process. In all cases, conservative, anti-peace parties could make use of the reduced US focus to expand their activities.

There is also the economic angle. There are hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis living abroad, due to troubles at home. These troubles could send them fleeing in larger numbers, thus putting more strain on the economies of Middle Eastern countries, especially those belonging to the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council.

Iran in particular has much to worry when it comes to its economy. It was placing much hope on the peace pipeline running through Pakistan and India. It was hoping that through the sale of gas to these two energy hungry giants, it could increase its income and political leverage in the region. With relations between India and Pakistan worsening, this now seems much less likely.

The current crisis between India and Pakistan is not just a test for Barack Obama. Its a challenge for the entire international community, including the Middle East. Despite the difficulties ahead, Middle Eastern countries, especially those who have leverage over Pakistan, should try to contain the current situation by pressuring Islamabad to curb the activities of terrorists on its soil. Saudi Arabia could lead the region in this case. Having emerged as the recent rescuer to Pakistan’s financial crisis, it could use its leverage over Islamabad. After Washington, Riyadh is the second biggest door opener in corridors of power in Pakistan. This could be put into good use.

The current crisis can also be viewed as the first test for global multilateral diplomacy as a tool to resolve crisis in the post Bush era. The international community should try not to fail.

© Copyright 2008 Meir Javedanfar – Middle East Analyst. All rights reserved.

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MUMBAI: LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.462

Global Intelligence News

By B.Raman

While the picture of what happened in Mumbai between 9-21 PM on Wednesday and 8 AM on Saturday, when the terrorist situation was finally terminated, is still incomplete and confusing, certain facts available should give an attitude of the magnitude of the strikes, the like of which the world has not seen before:
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