BOOKS-US: When Neocons Ruled Washington

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Michael Flynn

GENEVA, Dec 16 (IPS) – In the first two pages of his book on the neoconservative movement, historian Stephen Sniegoski tells us that U.S. Mideast policy during the George W. Bush presidency has been ”colossally erroneous” and ”disastrous to U.S. interests”, that the Iraq War is a ”blunder of colossal proportions”, and that an attack on Iran is a ”highly likely” ”disaster” unless the country ”eschews all elements of the Middle East war policy”.

It is hard to argue with these points. But the book’s relentless, partisan rhetoric serves to confirm what is obvious from its title: ”The Transparent Cabal: The Neoconservative Agenda, War in the Middle East, and the National Interest of Israel” is yet another treatise on the pernicious influence of the neocons on foreign policy.

So many studies have been penned on this subject that the noted international relations scholar Robert Jervis, in a 2005 review of a similar book, wrote that ”one may wonder whether more is needed”.

Sniegoski’s contribution is to thoroughly review the mountain of material already published on the neocons to support a thesis held by many war critics — that neocons, abetted by the 9/11 attacks and their supporters within the administration, were able to ”gain control” of U.S. policy.
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RIGHTS-NEPAL: ‘Maoists Slow to Return Seized Property’

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Renu Kshetry

KATHMANDU, Dec 9 (IPS) – Tej Bahadur Roila, a member of the Nepal army, is unable to return to his home in the Khotang district of Eastern Nepal because his property, seized by Maoist rebels in the middle of the decade-long civil war they waged against the monarchy, has not been returned.

The political arm of the rebels, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) — which emerged as the largest political party elections held in April following the 2006 peace deal — has done little to fulfil pledges to return property grabbed by cadres from absentee landlords and people who fled the rural areas for safety.

Chances are slim that Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, still known by his nom de guerre ‘Prachanda’, will be able to fulfil solemn promises made in Parliament on Nov. 10 that seized property will be returned to owners by mid-December.
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PAKISTAN DETAINS LET’S KHALID SHEIKH MOHAMMAD?

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR–PAPER NO. 480

Global Intelligence News

B.RAMAN

Pakistani media and some foreign news agencies, including the Associated Press, reported on December 8,2008, that helicopter-borne Pakistani security forces raided a camp of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) located at a place called Shawai, on the outskirts of Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), on December 7 and detained 12 inmates of the camp, including Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, reportedly the operational chief of the LET.

2.Major-Gen.Athar Abbas, a spokesman of the army, while briefing the media, confirmed that the security forces had carried out ” an intelligence-led operation against a banned militant organisation and carried out several arrests” , but he did not identify the organisation as the LET. Nor did he confirm that Lakhvi was among those detained.
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RIGHTS: Bipartisan U.S. Panel Offers Blueprint to Prevent Genocide

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Dec 8 (IPS) – A bipartisan task force of former top national security policymakers is calling on the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama to make the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities overseas a top U.S. foreign policy priority.

In a report released here Monday, the group, which was co-chaired by former President Bill Clinton’s Pentagon chief, William Cohen, and secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, argued that mass atrocities threaten core U.S. national interests and that the national security bureaucracy should be reformed to reflect that priority.

Its release came on the eve of the 60th anniversary of the U.N.’s adoption of the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and the 20th anniversary of its final ratification by the United States.
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SOUTH ASIA: Concern for Zardari’s Civilian Gov’t Stays India

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Analysis by Praful Bidwai

NEW DELHI, Dec 7 (IPS) – After United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s visit to New Delhi and Islamabad, in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist attacks, India has added a new rationale for stepping up pressure on Pakistan for taking decisive action against jehadi extremists operating from its soil.

However, India has still not determined what approach to adopt to achieve its objective, and is wary of using means which might escalate hostility with Pakistan in ways which would “play into the hands” of those responsible for acts of terrorism against its citizens.

In a special background briefing for the media, a senior Indian official only identifiable under briefing rules as “authoritative source” said India has proof of the involvement of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency in the Mumbai attacks, which left more than 200 people dead.

But India will not make this accusation publicly for fear that that would escalate tensions and weaken the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari, which it regards as favourably disposed towards the peace process with India.
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The ‘Other’, Older Palestinian Coup D’etat

Global Intelligence News

By Nicola Nasser*

Failing to substantiate for the President of the autonomous Palestinian Authority (PA), Mahmoud Abbas, a credible “legal” basis to extend his term from the Basic Law, which is the constitutional terms of reference that govern the rotation of power and the renewal of the executive, legislative and judicial branches of the PA, Abbas in his capacity as the chairman of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) convened the rubber stamping Fatah –dominated Central Council (CC) of the PLO in the West Bank city of Ramallah to elect him also President of the State of Palestine on November 23.

The move could have been the last “constitutional” resort to extend his term as PA president before it expires on January 9 next year in order to secure himself as the supreme “legitimate” authority on Palestinian decision –making in the context of the “make – or – break” bloody wrangling with the rival Hamas on the leadership of the Palestinian national movement.
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US-MIDEAST: Regional Players Key to Salvaging Peace Process

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Ali Gharib

WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (IPS) – One of the biggest foreign policy challenges facing the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama will be reinvigorating what looks like a completely stalled Palestinian-Israeli peace process.

Repeated failures in the struggle for peace make clear that a change in direction is needed. And many observers think that taking advantage of the Arab Peace Initiative put forward by the Arab League in 2002 is just the ticket to jumpstarting the process.

A push by Pres. George W. Bush in the final year of his two-term presidency yielded the Annapolis process which, though having made minimal procedural gains and bringing in regional players, largely ignored the existing Arab proposal spearheaded by then-Crown Prince and now King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.

The Annapolis track ended up failing to meet its own goals of having an agreement signed by the end of Bush’s time in office.
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Two Analysts of Global Terrorism Comment on Mumbai

Rohan Gunaratna and Larry C. Johnson

Commentary Republished on the Global News Blog

Learning from the Mumbai Tragedy

Rohan Gunaratna

The coordinated simultaneous attack in Mumbai on November 27, 2008 was a classic Al Qaeda-style attack. Although not perpetrated by Osama bin Laden’s group, the attackers and their masterminds were influenced by Al Qaeda’s methodology and ideology. The terrorists selected high profile, symbolic and strategic targets. It was a mass fatality – mass casualty attack where the terrorists were killing to kill and die. The attack primarily targeted India but also singled out Americans, its allies and friends.

The subcontinental terrorists that staged an al Qaeda-style attack in Mumbai could attack again. Although the terrorists have been neutralized, the masterminds that planned and the infrastructure that was used to prepare the attack in India’s financial capital is intact. The ideology that motivated the attackers and generated the support, still needs to be dismantled.

Asian terrorism is on the rise. The epicentre of international terrorism has now shifted to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, a region straddling India and China. Today, the world’s top four countries that suffer from terrorism are Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and India. Unless, India and Pakistan work together both these countries will suffer heavily from terrorism in the coming years.

The terrorist attack in Mumbai should serve as a reminder to governments that terrorism is a global threat. Unless governments understand that terrorism is a transnational threat and they must work together to counter it, they will suffer from it. Although India has a long history of fighting terrorism and insurgency, Mumbai took India by surprise. Every successful terrorist attack is an intelligence failure. India will need to restructure its security and intelligence apparatus as well as its quick reaction forces. Their performance fell behind the scale of threat India faced on November 27-29, 2008. The spearhead of effective and efficient counter terrorism is intelligence. The key to fighting the current and the emerging wave of terrorism will rest on India’s future ability to develop sound and timely intelligence and developing liaison partnerships for intelligence sharing. The Indian security and intelligence services failed on both these counts.

India should strengthen its coverage of threat groups at home by investing in high grade -high quality intelligence collection and overseas by building intelligence sharing partnerships with its neighbours. Instead of accusing Pakistan for every attack on Indian soil, Indian leaders must understand that both India and Pakistan face a common threat. Without building a robust relationship with Pakistan, India has been strengthening its cooperation with Israel and the U.S. As the regional power, India must take the lead and reach out to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka and share counter terrorism intelligence. It will require a visionary Indian leader to understand the change in paradigm after September 11, 2001, and build the structures to protect India from within and overseas.

Mumbai is a wakeup call for countries and people who have not taken the threat of terrorism and extremism seriously. Terrorism is the most serious national security challenge confronting the world today. To win, building skill and will at all levels of government is paramount. There is no better investment than educating leaders, including leaders at the highest level of government. India should call for a summit of Asian leaders to better understand the emerging threat in Asia and develop a plan of action aimed at reducing and managing the threat.

The terrorist attack has major implications for global security and for the new Obama Administration. If India threatens Pakistan, Islamabad will withdraw its 100,000 troops on Pakistan’s troubled border with Afghanistan, where Al Qaeda and other threat groups are based. Such a troop redeployment will dramatically increase the threat to Afghanistan and to global security. The terrorists will benefit from such a relocation of Pakistani troops from tribal Pakistan to the Indian border.One could question if the terrorists had conceived this attack with such intentions to ease the pressure on Al Qaeda, Pakistani Taliban and its associated groups. U.S. should mediate the disputes between India and Pakistan and help build a counterterrorism partnership between these two nuclear rivals.

Larry C. Johnson responds:

“If the reports from survivors of the Taj are correct, then it is highly unlikely this was a homegrown Indian group. The fact that staff of the hotel were collaborating with the attackers tells me these were intelligence assets recruited and put in place. I don’t think it is mere coincidence that Ali Zardari announces the Paks are going to disband the political wing of ISI and the next thing you know all hell breaks loose in Mumbai.”

Larry C. Johnson’s more detailed commentary follows in the article included below.

Mumbai Update and Observations

Read the article in its orignal form on No Quarter

By Larry Johnson
Email: larry_johnson@earthlink.net
Site: http://NoQuarterUSA.net

While relations between India and Pakistan are understandably strained in the wake of this week’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, Pakistan is making the right moves to reassure India that it is serious about dismantling the terrorist infrastructure that exists in Pakistan. Pakistan’s Prime Minister is in India and expressing support for India and condemning the attacks. Pakistani President Zardari also has directed the head of Pakistan’s intelligence service to go to Mumbai and assist with the investigation. This follows on the heels of his directive last week to dismantle the political wing of ISI.

I suspect many of you may not know what the hell I am talking about. So here is a Reader’s Digest summary/condensed version:

A portion of Pakistan’s ISI (i.e., it’s version of the CIA and FBI combined) has provided direct support, financing and training to radical Islamists. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, for example, the ISI helped organize, arm and train mujahedin fighting the Soviets. Some in Pakistan’s intelligence and military services see the support to the Islamic groups as a tool to help them confront neighbors they view as a threat–India and Iran in particular. The status of the Kashmir region (northwest India, northeast Pakistan) is a major focus for the terrorist activities of the Islamic extremists. Besides worrying about the Kashmir, the ISI, for example, also helped the Taliban get up and running.

The ISI, or at least elements in the ISI, worked directly with Bin Laden and his band:

In 2003, the US government declassified 32 documents relating to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. These included secret memos from the State Department and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). One of the DIA documents noted, “[Osama] bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network was able to expand under the safe sanctuary extended by Taliban following Pakistan directives. If there is any doubt on that issue, consider the location of bin Laden’s camp targeted by US cruise missiles, Zahawa. Positioned on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, it was built by Pakistani contractors, funded by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] directorate … If this was later to become bin Laden’s base, then serious questions are raised by the early relationship between bin Laden and Pakistan’s ISI.”

In 1998, US warships in the Arabian Sea launched cruise missiles on “al-Qaeda” training camps in Afghanistan. However, at least one of the targeted camps was a HuM facility, run in conjunction with Pakistani military and intelligence officials. According to the US 9-11 Commission, many HuM volunteers and a few Pakistani intelligence personnel were killed during the missile attack. Soon after the strike, Khalil called a press conference in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad and threatened the US that his men would attack Americans in their homes, just like the Americans attacked them (HuM) in their own backyard. HuM continued to operate training camps in eastern Afghanistan until US air strikes destroyed them during the fall of 2001. In 2003, HuM began using the name Jamiat ul-Ansar.

There is essentially a civil war in Pakistan. The Pakistani Government for the most part condemns and rejects terrorism and the Islamic extremists responsible for this activity. Yet, elements within the government, provide direct support to such groups and view them as an element of Pakistani national security policy.

The people who carried out the multiple attacks this week in Mumbai almost certainly were trained in camps inside Pakistan controlled by Islamic extremists (Harakat ul Mujahedin or Lashkar e Tayiba) and supported, at least tacitly, by elements of the ISI and/or Pakistani Army.

Here is what we I conclude based on the events so far:

1. The preparation for this attack was very sophisticated. There was significant prior planning to gather intelligence about the hotels, restaurants, train station, and the Jewish apartment building. This was not spur of the moment. The information on the various sites was gathered in advance and assembled into a coordinated plan.

2. The young men who carried out these coordinated strikes had training and communication support that enabled them to launch these attacks. The training most likely required at least one week and would have incorporated the intelligence about the target sites.

3. The training in marksmanship and explosives was rudimentary. The attackers learned the point and spray method of shooting, which is imprecise and not terribly effective. When we get a final count of the number of attackers and consider what they were capable of carrying in terms of ammunition and grenades, they certainly did not kill anywhere near the number of people they could have if they were highly trained in Close Quarter Battle (CQB). Please do not misunderstand me. What the terrorists have done is terrible and has inflicted unbearable suffering on thousands of families. But this could have been far worse.

4. The Government of India and their police SWAT teams (NSG) are doing a good job of managing an almost impossible situation. Military officers, not police, are more qualified to deal with a situation involving combat at multiple sites. Nonetheless, the police appear to have adapted pretty well. Despite the audacity of the terrorists, the result is going to be as expected–the attackers will be dead or jailed and police and military forces around the world will study the incident and upgrade their capabilities. It is worth noting that the United States has provided India some significant counter terrorism support to the police over the last five years. That training is paying off this week.

5. The media hysteria pronouncing these attacks as the end of the world is just silly. The Indian police are moving methodically to clear the buildings involved in the original attack. They are clearly trying to minimize other civilian casualties. These attacks have disrupted life in Mumbai for this week. But these events also are likely to spark increased vigilance and security operations that will make it more difficult for groups like these to carry out future operations.

The longterm solution to this violence requires dismantling the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and helping India and Pakistan find a peaceful resolution to the Kashmir dispute. India, I believe, will recover fine from these attacks. Pakistan? A much more difficult and dangerous problem. The United States and the rest of the world may have little ability to influence what happens inside Pakistan to tamp down the influence of Islamic extremists. We must try and this will be a significant challenge for Barack Obama’s foreign policy team. The Bush team leaves office having left things in Pakistan worse off than when they took office.

© Copyright 2008 Rohan Gunaratna and Larry C. Johnson. All rights reserved.

About the Authors:

Rohan Gunaratna:

Rohan Gunaratna is Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the S. Rajaratnam School for International Studies, (RSIS), Singapore. The author of “Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror”, Gunaratna debriefed high value detainees, including in Iraq.

Larry C. Johnson

Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an
international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering. Mr. Johnson worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism.

 

 

Image:

The Taj Mahal Hotel Burniing
Source: www.thechetan.com
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Popularity: 31% [?]

RIGHTS-PAKISTAN: Enlarged Capital Crimes List Belies Promises – Activists

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Zofeen Ebrahim

KARACHI, Dec 2 (IPS) – The decision to add ”cyber terrorism” to Pakistan’s long list of capital crimes has raised questions on whether the new government has the resolve to carry through its promise to commute the death sentences of 7,000 prisoners.

Last month, President Asif Ali Zardari issued a decree making internet crime punishable by execution or life imprisonment — if ”the death of any person” has resulted.

The new offence brings to 28 the number of crimes that carry the death sentence in Pakistan.

News of the new punishment, which took effect retrospectively on Sep. 29, was immediately denounced by human rights activists.

”We have criticised the government for enlarging the number of offences for which death is awarded,” I.A. Rehman, director of the independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), told IPS.
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POLITICS-THAILAND: Gov’t Falls As Court Bans Ruling Party

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Dec 2 (IPS) – A legacy of Thailand’s last military regime prevailed in a superior court’s judgement Tuesday to dissolve the ruling party, which was elected at a December 2007 poll to succeed that very junta that had come to power following the country’s 18th coup.

Somchai Wongsawat, the country’s 26th prime minister and the second person to hold that office this year, was also banned from politics for five years, along with 36 other executives of the People Power Party (PPP). Two other smaller political, which made up the six-party coalition government, suffered a similar fate.

‘’As the court decided to dissolve the People Power Party, therefore the leader of the party and the party executives must be banned from politics for five years,” said Chat Chonlaworn, head of the nine-member bench of the Constitutional Court.

The unanimous ruling against the PPP faulted it for vote buying as a political crime. It stemmed from the role of one PPP executive, Yongyuth Tiyapairat, in such an election malpractice at the December 2007 poll. Yongyuth had already been convicted by the Supreme Court for his violation of the election laws.

The court’s ruling was in keeping with a practice introduced by the last military regime to target the Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thai û TRT) party, which had been in power after winning two elections with thumping mandates till it was turfed out by the military in the September 2006 putsch.

The TRT was dissolved and its 111 executives û including former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra û were banned for five years for committing political crimes during a controversial parliamentary elections in April 2006. In that instance, two senior TRT men, who had been cabinet ministers, were faulted for paying smaller, little-known parties to contest that April poll to give it an air of legitimacy.

The judicial body that sunk the TRT was a creation of the junta. And the laws used by the nine-member Constitutional Tribunal were simply orders that the military leaders had issued after capturing power to prevent the powerful TRT, which had deep and wide following among the country’s rural poor, the largest constituency, from returning.

Prior to the coup, the election laws that had been introduced following the country’s 1997 constitution, considered the most democratic of charters, threatened political parties with a ban if executives are faulted with election malpractice. But that did not stop members and leaders from the banned party contesting the next poll, unlike now.

‘’They (the junta) combined the old law with a new order they gave to ban executives of a party found guilty of election malpractices for five years,” says Michael Nelson, a German academic who has written extensively on Thai political parties. ‘’The law that targeted the TRT was enforced retroactively.”

A committee appointed by the junta to draft the 2007 constitution took this law a step further by incorporating into the country’s new election law. ‘’They obliged the coup plotters by transferring the announcement of (the junta) into the new election law,” Nelson told IPS. ‘’They helped to institutionalise collective punishment.”

But the banning of the PPP, created to succeed the TRT and retain its strong vote base, may do little to end the increasingly violent clashes between anti-PPP and pro-PPP groups. The PPP-led coalition has been at the receiving end of withering criticism by a right-wing protest movement, rallying under the banner of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

The PAD, which draws its support from the urban middle-class, royalists, the military and entrenched elites, has a political agenda that contradicts its name û drastically rolling back the one-person-one-vote system and wanting the military to mount another coup. It is targeting the PPP as a proxy of Thaksin and continuing the same corrupt practices that the banned TRT was accused of.

Thaksin, currently living in exile, is wanted for a slew of corruption charges, one of which has already found him guilty and given him a two-year jail sentence. Somchai, the premier who was just banned after three months in office, is Thaksin’s brother-in-law.

Following Tuesday’s ruling, the PAD announced it was withdrawing its supporters after a week-long siege of the country’s largest international airport. The take over of the Suvarnabhumi airport, south-east of Bangkok, and the domestic Don Muang airport, north of the capital, took the anti-government protests to a new level, but at a
heavy economic price to the country.

The PAD’s success at forcefully occupying highly symbolic places in the city — including the prime minister’s office — since late May was possible due to the impunity it enjoyed to break the law. Not only did the army, which is a powerful player in Thai politics, appear sympathetic to the PAD, but the administrative court was also soft on them.

This triggered a backlash by a pro-PPP protest movement, resulting in fatal clashes, at times, between the two groups. This pro-government group, identified by the red shirts they wear to be distinct from the yellow shirts worn by PAD supporters, are livid at Tuesday’s court ruling. There were tense moments outside the Constitutional Court, when the emotionally charged pro-PPP supporters wanted to stop the judges from entering the courts.

The anger at the nine judges, all of whom were appointed to this court during the last military regime, stems from Constitutional Court’s rush to deliver a judgement against the PPP and the two other parties. The judges ignored a request by the accused parties to present a long list
witnesses to clear their names, consequently denying them due process of the law.

‘’We are going to let the country know what happened. Public meetings will be held in major provinces to inform the people, our supporters, about what is being done to an elected government,” says Jakrapob Penkair, a former PPP government spokesman. ‘’We would not want these
protests to turn violent.”

‘’What is being enforced on us is a structure aimed at reducing the power of elected political parties,” he added during an interview. ‘’It is like being trapped in a circle where you are electable but unable to govern because of the powerful anti-democratic forces.”

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

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