INDIA/PAKISTAN: Hoax Call Hyped by Media – Get Hostilities to Brink

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Beena Sarwar

KARACHI, Dec 7 (IPS) – A hoax phone call from India to Pakistan’s President threatening military reprisals in the aftermath of the terrorist attack on Mumbai city, hyped up by media, brought the nuclear-armed neighbours close to conflict.

However, analysts believe that the hostilities arising from the attack and the media hype can still be contained.

The three-day standoff in Mumbai was barely over on Nov. 28 when the late-evening phone call was made, supposedly from India’s External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, to Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari. Because of the heightened tensions, his staff bypassed routine procedures and transferred the call to Zardari.

The imposter ”directly threatened to take military action if Islamabad failed to immediately act against the supposed perpetrators of the Mumbai killings” according to a report in the daily Dawn, Pakistan of Dec. 6, which reveals that the call was a hoax that sent Pakistan into a state of ‘high alert’ last weekend, ”eyeing India for possible signs of military aggression”.
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ENVIRONMENT: Modified Habitats Pose Threat of Zoonotic Diseases

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Diego Cevallos

MÉRIDA, Mexico, Dec 3 (IPS) – A breakout of yellow fever among monkeys caught authorities in Argentina and Brazil, and the Pan-American Health Organisation (PAHO), off-guard in October.

As in dozens of cases that occur every year, the outbreak was the result of growing interaction between wild animals and humans and changes in habitats, which is generating new diseases and reviving old ones.

Ebola, encephalitis, avian influenza, pulmonary hemorrhagic syndrome, viral hepatitis, leptospirosis and HIV, the AIDS virus, are just a few of the diseases that according to scientists emerged from the relationship between animals and humans, and that claim thousands or even millions of lives a year while generating huge economic losses around the world.

”Climatic factors and human activity that is increasingly destructive and close to wild animals trigger diseases that in the past we could not even imagine, or that we believed had disappeared,” Silvia Alonso, a researcher with the Royal Veterinary College at the University of London, told IPS.
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AFTER MUMBAI : POINTS FOR ACTION

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.474

Global Intelligence News

B.RAMAN

( This incorporates some of the points coming to my mind, but is by no means a totally comprehensive list. I have deliberately not touched upon the Pakistan dimension. I would like to wait for some more details before commenting on the action that needs to be taken)

POINT 1: Set up a National Commission of professionals with no political agenda, in consultation with the Leader of the Opposition, to enquire into all the major terrorist strikes that have taken place in the Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) since November,2007, and task it to submit its report within four months, with no extensions given. Its charter will be not the investigation of the criminal cases arising from these terrorist strikes, but the investigation of the deficiencies and sins of commission and omission in our counter-terrorism agencies at the Centre and in the States, which made these strikes possible.

POINT 2: Induct proved experts in terrorism and counter-terrorism from the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the State Police and the Army into the R&AW at senior levels. Presently, the R&AW does not have any such expertise at senior levels. Of the four officers at the top of the pyramid, two are generalists, one is an expert in Pakistan (Political) and the other in China (Political).
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Q&A: ”I Can’t Be a Lifelong Suspect”

Global Intelligence News / IPS

Ángel Páez interviews imprisoned Bolivarian Committee leader ROQUE GONZÁLES LA ROSA

LIMA, Nov 27 (IPS) – The prosecution in Peru has asked for a 20-year prison sentence for Roque Gonzáles La Rosa, a member of the now dismantled Peruvian chapter of the Continental Bolivarian Committee (CCB), inspired by the policies of left-wing Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.

Gonzáles La Rosa and six other activists were arrested by the National Anti-Terrorism Directorate (DIRCOTE) at the border between Peru and Ecuador on Feb. 29, on their way back from Quito where they had attended the Second Congress of the CCB, which is alleged to have links with Colombia’s FARC guerrillas.

DIRCOTE informed the justice system that Gonzáles La Rosa, the leader of the delegation, had served nine years in prison for belonging to the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA), the smaller of the two guerrilla groups involved in Peru’s 1980-2000 civil war (the larger group was the Maoist Sendero Luminoso or Shining Path).
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ACTIVE DEFENCE OF INDIAN SHIPPING AGAINST SOMALI PIRACY

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.470

Global Intel Net

B.RAMAN

The policy of the Indian Navy in its operations against Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden area can be characterised as one of active defence of Indian shipping. That means, protection of Indian commercial ships and foreign ships with a large complement of Indian crew transiting through these waters and action in self-defence against pirate boats and ships, which threaten Indian lives and interests and threaten to attack Indian naval ships patrolling the seas in this area. The indications till now are that their role will not be extended to cover active intervention to free already hijacked ships. If preventive measures fail, the responsibility for getting a hijacked ship released from the custody of the pirates will be largely that of the company owning the ship.

2. Any active intervention role will require the presence of more ships with more specially-trained commandos on board. Moreover, if the intervention attempt fails, there could be diplomatic and other complications. It has been reported that the Ministry of Shipping of the Government of India is keen that at least four ships of the Navy should be on anti-piracy patrol. The present policy seems to be to have one ship on rotation on permanent anti-piracy patrol. At the most, this may be increased to two if resources and circumstances permit. Admiral Sureesh Mehta, the Chief of the Naval Staff, told the media on November 20, 2008,that the Navy was also considering the option of an aerial recce of the region. He has also been quoted as saying: “We are considering augmenting our efforts to keep the Indian traffic in the region safe.”
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U.S.: Intelligence Analysts See Multi-Polar, Risky World By 2025

Global Intel Net / IPS

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (IPS) – While the United States will remain the world’s single most powerful country in 2025, it will be less dominant and more constrained in its freedom of action — even in the military sphere — than it is now, according to a major new report released here Thursday by the government’s National Intelligence council (NIC).

Instead, ”a global multipolar system” will likely have emerged, one marked especially by the rise of the so-called BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — among others. The ”relative power of non-state actors — businesses, tribes, religious organisations, and even criminal networks” will also have increased, according to the 110-page report, entitled ”Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.”

India and China, however, are still likely to be more pre-occupied with their internal development than in changing the international system, according to the report, which also concluded that none of the BRIC powers is likely to challenge the status quo in the ways that Germany and Japan did in the 19th and 20th centuries and that led to world wars. Less cataclysmic challenges, however, could take place as emerging powers seek to protect their own interests, and power itself will have become more dispersed.
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RULES OF ENGAGEMENT IN MARITIME COUNTER-TERRORISM & COUNTER-PIRACY

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO.469

Global Intel Net

B.RAMAN

On October 12,2000, a boat filled with explosives with a suicide bomber of Al Qaeda rammed against a US destroyer named USS Cole in the Aden harbour. In the resulting explosion, 17 US naval personnel were killed and the ship was severely damaged. A subsequent enquiry brought out that a US naval officer on watch duty on the deck of USS Cole had seen the boat approaching USS Cole at high speed, but he did not fire on it and sink it. The rules of engagement of the US Navy then in force reportedly provided that US naval personnel should fire upon inside a harbour only if fired at. Since the Al Qaeda boat did not open fire, it was not fired at and sunk before it could ram against USS Cole. In justification of the seeming inaction of the officer on watch duty, it was stated during the enquiry that inside busy harbours such as that of Aden, many small boats operated by the harbour management keep moving around for providing logistics. It would have been difficult to assess the hostile intent of an approaching boat inside the harbour.
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FOR EYES OF PRESIDENT-ELECT OBAMA ONLY

Global Intel Net
Thursday, November 06, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

(From November 5,2008, President-elect Barrack Obama started receiving from the Director National Intelligence (DNI) a daily brief on the state of the world the previous day called the President’s Daily Brief (PDB). A background note on the PDB carried by the BBC online on November 6,2008, is annexed. The CIA would do well to incorporate the following in its PDB to Obama)

There is amazement —- and confusion— in India over reports that one of the first acts of the President will be to appoint Bill Clinton as his Special Envoy on the Kashmir issue to facilitate a settlement between India and Pakistan

2.Well-informed sources in India say that if the President-elect wants to severely damage the developing Indo-US relations he could not have thought of a better idea than to meddle in Kashmir. So many Americans—-Presidents, Presidents-elect and defeated Presidential-aspirants—- thought they could help in finding a solution to the Kashmir issue and burnt their fingers and damaged Indo-US relations.
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SRI LANKA: Tamil Rebels Defy Siege With Aerial Bombings

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net / IPS
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

IPS Correspondents

COLOMBO, Oct 29 (IPS) – Aerial bombings carried out on the capital and a northern military base, late Tuesday night, have signalled that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) remains a fighting force — despite being besieged in its headquarters of Kilinochchi by the Sri Lankan army.

The raids, carried out using light aircraft, resulted in what officials described as ‘minor damage’ to the Kelani-Tissa power plant and came shortly after a similar attack on a military camp in Mannar.

It was in March 2007 that the rebels first revealed the existence of an ‘air wing’ to its fighting force by carrying out a bombing raid on an oil storage site and a gas plant near Colombo.

Although the army is now within two km of Kilinochchi, its units have hesitated to make a final push into the town. Its overall thrust into LTTE-held territory appears to have got bogged down by the eastern monsoon rains.
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EU courts Asia, banks on China

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Monday, October 27, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Susenjit Guha. All rights reserved.

By Susenjit Guha

European Commission President Jose Barroso, who is also a former prime minister of Portugal, urged China, India and Japan to “be on board” at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing over the weekend. “It’s very simple: we sink together or we swim together,” he said. Apparently exasperated at Europe’s traditional ties with the United States, he seemed eager for a new alliance. The need for a paradigm shift has come, to tackle the worst financial crisis to hit the globe in 70 years.

At the meeting of 40 leaders in Beijing, climate change and food security concerns were overshadowed by news of a continuing bloodbath of global stocks. Barosso urged countries to resist calls for economic nationalism and protectionism that would only hurt prospects for a recovery, and underlined the need to regulate the world’s markets.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted more transparent markets, stricter supervision and closer international cooperation. French President Nicolas Sarkozy wanted more radical change, seeking to rewrite the rulebook for international capitalism at next month’s meeting of world leaders in Washington. He asked for assistance from Asian governments.

The International Monetary Fund failed to provide advance warning of the impending implosion in the financial markets, and has been slow at responding to requests from affected nations.

Laissez-faire has proved to be grossly unfair, as the Wall Street meltdown is not only melting the tar on Main Street, freeways and country roads in the United States, but has clogged narrow streets and roundabouts in teeming Asia as well.

And why is the European Union worried? European capitals are in the grip of Obamania, hoping for a real change in the United States – and the way it is perceived around the world – with the presumed election of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama next month. But Obamania does not guarantee European support for more troops for NATO engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq. Displeasure in Europe over U.S. unilateralism has been ratcheted up by the conduct of reckless financial institutions.

Positioned between the United States and the neighboring landmass of Asia, Europe needs to build bridges with the continent of the 21st century, Asia. As Barosso stressed at the ASEM meeting in Beijing, “We represent three-fifths of the world’s population and produce half of global GDP. Our combined action can and should make a real difference.”

Who other than China – even though Japan and India, the new kid on the block, were present – should take the lead in finding a solution to this crisis? With nearly US$2 trillion in currency reserves – more than Canada’s GDP – China is best positioned to step in. As Kim Eun Mee, professor of international studies at Ewha Women’s University in Seoul, South Korea, stressed, “Other ASEM nations have been calling for China to take a more leading role … to mediate a consensus among ASEM nations.”

Ahead of the Washington talks on Nov.15, China is being asked to ease its restrictions on banking, to prop up the strong yuan and to build a US$350 billion reserve firewall to protect the region’s currencies. Thailand wants this, and Citigroup Vice-President William Rhodes reiterated in the Financial Times that China was indispensable in solving this crisis.

But China’s leaders are wary of assuming so much responsibility at this stage of their country’s development, stressing that their first priority is raising the living standards of their own people.

Before the ASEM began, China, Japan and South Korea, along with 10 Southeast Asian nations, pledged a US$80 billion chest to stave off currency speculators, but no date was set for the launch of this fund.

The toxic sub-prime loan disaster has not hit China directly, but for the first time in five years growth has fallen to 9 percent as inflation creeps up. Exports, pivotal to China’s economic surge, will be affected as the U.S. and European economies continue to reel.

World leaders did their best to soften China up and bring Asia on board in an effort to introduce financial reforms at the Washington summit that would tackle the root causes of the crisis.

But judging by a commentary in the official newspaper, the People’s Daily, by Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai’s Tongji University, not everyone in China was impressed. Shi stopped

short of explaining how a non-convertible yuan could help, but said the euro, British pound, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan should be the currencies used for trade between the European Union and Asia. He demanded a boycott of the U.S. dollar, lambasting the United States for protecting its own interests while other countries’ wealth drained away.

Awarding the Sakharov Prize for the defense of human rights to jailed Chinese dissident Hu Jia one day before the Beijing summit was meant to remind the Asian dragon that Europe will continue to play the rights card, even if it has to court the dragon’s wealth.

Asia does not have even an EU-style semblance of solidarity, which may mean the various Asian governments will adopt different views on tackling the crisis, rather than uniting behind a European initiative. Of course, China will have its own way of doing business, taking the best and the worst of all worlds.

Time will tell if the overtures of a humane capitalistic Europe will be able to smother China, which cannot escape this financial crisis in the long run.

About the Author:

Susenjit Guha is a writer and journalist based in Kolkata, India. He contributes a weekly commentary and analysis for UPI Asia and has written on Indian and global political issues for such online publications as Online Opinion (Australia) and Foreign Policy in Focus (USA) and M.J Akbar (India).

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