DISARMAMENT: ”The Carnage Must Stop”

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Haider Rizvi

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 30 (IPS) – An international coalition of human rights and humanitarian aid organisations is calling for the world community to create a treaty that would prohibit the illicit business in guns and other small weapons around the world.

”This is the chance for the world’s nations [to] say that the carnage from the irresponsible use of weapons must stop,” said Anna Macdonald of the London-based Oxfam International ahead of the U.N. vote on the proposed arms trade treaty set for Friday.

According to Oxfam, the arms trade fuels conflict, poverty and grave human rights abuses. On average, more than 1,000 people are killed by firearms every day. There are tens of thousands who are raped and tortured by those in possession of illicit weapons.

In the past two weeks, in addition to some Noble laureates, including South Africa’s highly-respected spiritual leader Archbishop Desmond Tutu, many parliamentarians and former military leaders have also voiced their support for the treaty against the illegal transfer of guns.
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DRC: Aid Agencies Fear Humanitarian Disaster in North Kivu

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Ulrich Knapp

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 30 (IPS) – The situation in the strategic city of Goma in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was relatively calm Thursday after a night of fierce shooting and widespread looting, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported.

However, tens of thousands of Congolese fleeing the latest fighting between government forces and armed opposition groups is straining the already overburdened system of camps for North Kivu province’s estimated one million internally displaced persons.

”The humanitarian situation at the moment is terrible,” said Jaya Murthy, the spokesperson for the U.N. children’s agency UNICEF in the eastern DRC. ”We have about between 40,000 and 50 000 people that are in a couple of small camps five kilometres outside of [the provincial capital of] Goma.”

UNHCR also reported that many Congolese were heading towards Uganda looking for safety. Its team at the border said that on Thursday, some 8,000 entered Uganda at the Busanza border crossing.

Most of them are staying with host families and in public buildings, such as schools and churches. But around 2,000 of the refugees have opted to be transferred to the Nakivale refugee settlement further inside Uganda.

Most of the refugees in Uganda are dispersed over a large area, and the first major challenge, besides water and sanitation, will be the provision of food, as the area generally depends on local food imports from the DRC, UNHCR says.

The World Food Programme (WFP) said that it was able to distribute food to key nutritional centres and hospitals inside Goma on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes has called on the government and all armed groups in the area to protect civilians and to facilitate the work of humanitarian organisations.

”We all hope that Wednesday’s ceasefire will quickly help to restore minimum security conditions and allow humanitarian actors to work with civilian authorities to assess needs and mount emergency operations to address them,” Holmes said. ”Unconditional access, and respect for the independence, impartiality and neutrality of humanitarians as they go about their essential work have to be a top priority.”

The Security Council, in a presidential statement on Wednesday night, condemned the recent offensive of the Congrès national pour la défense du peuple (CNDP) in the eastern DRC, and demanded its immediate end.

In the statement read by Security Council President, Ambassador Zhang Yesui of China, the Council also welcomed the announcement of a ceasefire by the group’s leader, Laurent Nkunda.

The Council called on the U.N. mission in the country (MONUC) to take robust actions to protect civilians at risk and to deter any attempt to threaten the political process by any armed group.

Expressing concern at reports of heavy weapons fire across the border between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, the Council also called on the authorities in both countries to take concrete steps to defuse tensions and restore stability in the region, and called on all regional governments to cease all support to armed groups.

In regard to beefing up the MONUC force, the Council said it would ”expeditiously study” the request of the Secretariat in view of developments on the ground.

Rights groups say it is clear that more U.N. peacekeeping troops must be quickly sent to the region.

”We’re calling for the United Nations Security Council to take immediate and urgent steps to make sure that MONUC…is reinforced and provided with the military hardware in order to enable it to discharge its mandate of protecting civilians in eastern DRC,” Tawanda Hondora, deputy director of Amnesty International’s Africa programme, told Voice of America news.

”There are countries obviously that provide both moral and material support to some of these armed groups operating in eastern DRC. They need to be leaned upon to stop these attacks. They’re killing civilians, women and children. And if not checked, we will see a situation where neighbouring countries also begin to be destabilised.”

The DRC government has accused Rwanda of supporting the CNDP, while Rwanda accuses the DRC army of siding with the Rwandan Hutu armed group, the FDLR.

”We cannot wait to see another situation develop in eastern DRC, which is similar to the one witnessed between 1998 and 2002, where more than three million people died. It has to be stopped,” Hondora said.

The United Nations has less than 6,000 of its 17,000-strong DRC peacekeeping mission in the east, because of unrest in other provinces. In a video-link conference on Tuesday, Alan Doss, special representative of the secretary-general in DRC, said the force was badly overstretched and urgently needed reinforcement.

Earlier this month, Doss asked the Security Council for more peacekeepers, air support and other equipment. The Council has not yet responded to his request.

MONUC said on Wednesday rebels loyal to General Laurent Nkunda had fired five rockets on a U.N. convoy assigned to protect civilians on a road near Goma on Tuesday. The U.N. Mission emphasised that it will continue to intervene to protect civilians and urban centres across North Kivu.

DRC’s 1998-2003 war and an ongoing humanitarian crisis have killed more than five million people. With 17,000 troops deployed, MONUC is currently the U.N.’s biggest mission.

Popularity: 17% [?]

POLITICS-THAILAND: Anti-Coup Sentiment Gaining Popularity

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Analysis by Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Oct 31 (IPS) – With military takeovers enjoying a certain popularity, Thailand could easily be called ‘’the land of coups”. But anti-coup sentiments, now building up, may work to thwart the country’s 19th putsch since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

An anti-coup rally to be held on Saturday in an outdoor sports stadium in eastern Bangkok is being billed as a testing ground for this new trend, support for which comes mainly from the country’s rural heartland.

Organisers of the Nov. 1 rally, including the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), are excitedly talking of attracting close to 60,000 supporters for the event.

Expectations for the success of the event are being shaped by the successful rally organised by the UDD and its media partner, a popular television programme called ‘Truth Today’, held on Oct. 11 at an indoor stadium north of the Thai capital. Some 10,000 people, dressed in red shirts, packed the stadium to hear speakers talk about the threats to democracy and elected governments.
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BLEEDING ASSAM CRIES OUT FOR ATTENTION

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO 464

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel News
Thursday, October 30, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

Available police statistics of incidents involving explosions and civilian casualties caused by the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) since 2002 are given below:

The figures of civilians killed in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 include civilians killed by explosions as well as in attacks not involving IEDs.The figures for 2006 and 2007 refer to only civilians killed by IEDs. While there was a large number of incidents involving IEDs, the number of civilians killed per incident was low as compared to incidents involving IEDs caused by jihadi terrorists in other parts of India. This could be attributed to the fact that the explosive material used by the ULFA—-much of it procured from Bangladesh— was of low quality as compared to the material available to the jihadi terrorists — whether procured from Pakistan or Bangladesh— and the expertise in the use of IEDs imparted to the ULFA in the training camps in Bangladesh was also of inferior quality as compared to the expertise imparted to the jihadi terrorists—whether in Pakistan or Bangladesh.

A defining characteristic of the incidents involving the use of IEDs targeting civilians in Assam was that many of the incidents specifically targeted non-Assamese civilians while taking care not to target Assamese-speaking civilians and illegal Bangladeshi migrants. Jihadi terrorists in other parts of India make no distinction. They kill civilians indiscriminately—- without worrying about their religion, ethnic or linguistic origin.

Jihadi terrorism, as distinguished from the ethnic terrorism of the ULFA kind, has also started making inroads in Assam. According to the Assam Police, the following jihadi organisations are now active in Assam: The Muslim Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA); the Independent Liberation Army of Assam (ILAA); the People United Liberation Front (PULF); the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), whose Pakistani counterpart is a founding member of Osama bin Laden’s International Islamic Front (IIF); and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), whose Pakistani counterpart is also a member of the IIF. According to them, the activities of all these organisations are co-ordinated by the Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen (JUM) of Bangladesh, which organised hundreds of simultaneous explosions of crude devices all over Bangladesh on August 17, 2005.

Some HUM cadres, along with two Pakistani nationals, were arrested in August, 1999. Forty-two HUM cadres, including some trained in the Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), surrendered till 2006-end. Four HUJI cadres trained in Bangladesh surrendered in August, 2004. One HUJI cadre was arrested in February, 2004. Till 2006-end, 370 jihadi terrorists belonging to different organisations had been arrested and 128 had surrendered.

The Security Forces in Assam have been putting up a determined fight against the ULFA killing 1,128 cadres since 1991 and till 2006-end and arresting 11,173 during the same period. 8,465 others surrendered. The result: decrease in cadre strength; erosion of its support base in the population; decrease in recruitment and fund collection; and shortage of arms and ammunition. In view of these developments, the ULFA started following a new modus operandi with the following features: decrease in specific targeted violence; increase in
indiscriminate violence directed at soft targets; targeting of vital installations in remote areas; attacks on security forces when and where possible; and use of unconscious third persons not suspected by the Police for having the IEDs planted in public places. The use of such unconscious third persons has been increasing.

However, the ULFA still has an estimated hardcore of 800 trained cadres and another 1,500 untrained cadres. There are no signs of any weakening of its morale and motivation. Its command and control orchestrated from Bangladesh is intact.

Any effective counter-terrorism strategy in Assam has to have the conventional components such as improving intelligence collection, analysis and assessment and co-ordinated follow-up action; improving the capability and resources of the police; strengthened physical security; and a well-tested crisis management drill. In addition, it must have a strong anti-illegal immigration component—to prevent any further illegal immigration from Bangladesh and the identification, arrests and deportation of those, who have already illegally entered India. Obviously for electoral reasons, there is a reluctance on the part of the Government to deal effectively with illegal immigration. This is likely to prove suicidal. Muslims constitute about 32 per cent of the population of Assam today. If the problem of illegal immigration from Bangladesh is not tackled, there is a real danger that in another 50 years, Assam might turn into a Muslim majority State.

Pakistan, Bangladesh and China have an interest in keeping Assam destabilised—each for its own reason. The interest of Pakistan and Bangladesh is in facilitating the emergence of a Muslim majority State and its ultimate secession from India. The interest of China is in weakening the Indian capability to protect Arunachal Pradesh in the likelihood of the unresolved border dispute over Arunachal Pradesh one day leading to a confrontation between India and China.

The previous Government headed by Shri A. B. Vajpayee was strong in rhetoric relating to terrorism, but weak in action. Its successor Govt. is weak in rhetoric as well as action. It seems to believe that confidence-building measures with neighbours who are sponsoring terrorism against India and the peace process would pay dividends in improving the terrorism situation on the ground. This is unlikely to happen. Lack of determination to act strongly and in time is already costing us heavily and will cost even more heavily in future.

—Extract from the Chapter titled ASSAM: TERRORISM & “SILENT UNARMED INVASION” in my book titled “Terrorism: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow” published by the Lancer Publishers (www.lancerpublishers.com) of Delhi in June,2008

———————————————————————————————

More than 50 persons are feared to have died and more than a hundred injured in over 10 blasts that were simultaneously orchestrated in Guwahati, the capital of Assam, and in the Districts of Barpeta and Kokrajhar on the night of October 29,2008. The picture regarding the exact number of explosions and the places where they took place is still confusing. Some reports put the number of explosions as high as 18. At least four of the blasts took place in Guwahati.

2. The people of Assam are not strangers to serial blasts carried out from time to time by the ULFA and jihadi organisations of Pakistani and Bangladeshi vintage, which have made inroads into the State by taking advantage of the uncontrolled illegal immigration of Muslims into the State from Bangladesh They have been operating separately of each other when possible and in co-ordination with each other, when necessary.

3. Assam has been the nerve-centre of a cocktail of terrorist organisations—-ethnic and jihadi— who have been systematically eating at the vitals of this State, which is key for protecting the integrity of India from the designs of Pakistan, Bangladesh and China.But nobody has had the time to pay attention to the alarming ground situation in this key State—-neither the Congress (I) nor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor any other party. Taking advantage of the lack of serious attention from the Government of India and the mainstream political parties, this cocktail of terrorists has been spreading havoc in the State.

4. “My heart goes out to the people of Assam,” said Jawaharlal Nehru in a broadcast to the people of Assam as the Chinese troops were marching in in 1962. He did nothing to protect them before the Chinese invaded. His Government and its successors did precious little to protect this right arm of India and its people either from the Chinese in the event of another war or from the terrorist organisations of various hues which have come up in the State since the 1980s. Who is whose surrogate? Who is the surrogate of Pakistan? Who is the surrogate of Bangladesh? Who is the surrogate of China? Is there a joint co-ordination by Pakistan, Bangladesh and China to undermine the control of the Indian State? Nobody knows the answer.

5. Everyone is clueless—- the intelligence agencies, the police, the security forces, the political class. There is hardly any realisation of the seriousnress of the situation in Assam. One can even understand inadequacies and even incompetence, but one is alarmed by the total disinterest in Delhi in what is going on in Assam.

6. It is too early to say who was involved in the explosions of October 29—- the ULFA only or ULFA plus? One has to wait for the results of the investigation, but from the large number of casualties and the widespread nature of the attacks, one thing is already clear—-there has been a worrisome increase in the lethality of the explosives available to the terrorists and their ability to use them effectively.

7. Public opinion has to force the Governments at the Centre and in the State and the political class as a whole to act before it is too late. (30-10-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Guwahati, Assam
Image Source:
Wikipedia Commons
Author: Rituraj Bhuyan

Popularity: 17% [?]

POLITICS-SOMALIA: Harsh Words For Transitional Government

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel News / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Joyce Mulama

NAIROBI, Oct 30 (IPS) – Horn of Africa leaders attending a regional summit have lashed out at Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) for failing to restore peace and order in the war-torn country.

”Failed they have, as can easily be seen in the lack of progress in all areas in government. This is the truth that neither the Transitional Federal Government authorities, nor we, can sweep under the rug,” Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s prime minister and IGAD chairman told the Oct. 29 summit.

The TFG was established following years of protracted talks under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Trade and Development (IGAD) — a regional body comprising Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia itself. The transitional government’s overall mandate was to constitute functional transitional federal institutions to stabilise the security situation, review the constitution, conduct a census and hold a democratic election by 2009.
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Popularity: 13% [?]

RIGHTS-COLOMBIA: Extrajudicial Killings Under Scrutiny

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel News / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Constanza Vieira

BOGOTA, Oct 30 (IPS) – The dismissal of 20 officers and seven noncommissioned officers for extrajudicial executions of civilians presented as battlefield casualties ”is a triumph for human rights organisations and for Colombian society as a whole,” said Reynaldo Villalba of the José Alvear Restrepo Lawyers Collective.

Villalba urged the Attorney General’s Office to carry out an in-depth investigation, ”not only of the fired officers but especially of those who were not fired, who remain hidden and are responsible for these policies.”

The three generals, 11 colonels, four majors, one captain, one lieutenant, six sergeants and one corporal who were sacked were posted in the northern departments (provinces) of Santander, Norte de Santander, Arauca and Antioquia.

The second and seventh army divisions both lost their commanders, Generals
José Joaquín Cortés (Santander, Norte de Santander and Arauca) and Roberto Pico (Antioquia).
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Popularity: 10% [?]

US PREDATOR STRIKES IN FATA STEPPED UP

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR–PAPER NO.462

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

“The reported US assurances to respect Pakistani sovereignty in its territory did not apply to air strikes, which could continue as before. In fact, the Pakistan Army itself had agreed to these air strikes when Musharraf was the President and the COAS. Kayani was a party to that decision and he could not now object to such air strikes unless the Army wanted the permission for air strikes accorded by Musharraf to be withdrawn. However, Musharraf had consistently refused to agree to unilateral ground strikes by the US special forces. The present Government cannot give the impression that it had gone even further than Musharraf in its co-operation with the US forces in their operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban .”—- from my article of September 20,2008, titled “US STRIKES IN FATA: Change In Continuity” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2851.html

——————————————————–

The “New York Times” reported on its web site on October 26,2008, as follows: The United States is refraining from using its special forces on the Pakistani territory following a raid nearly two months ago that resulted in civilian casualties and vehement protests from Islamabad. Following the attack, National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani made an unannounced visit to Washington and expressed his country’s anger in person to top White House officials, including National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley.But while the ground raids have stopped, attacks by remotely-piloted Predator aircraft, which are operated by the Central Intelligence Agency, have increased sharply in the past three months.There were at least 18 Predator strikes since the beginning of August, some deep inside the tribal areas, as compared with the five strikes during the first seven months of 2008.
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Popularity: 13% [?]

LTTE AIR WING STRIKES AGAIN

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR–PAPER NO.463

Global Intel Net – Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

The air wing of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) carried out two attacks within an interval of about 90 minutes on a military target in the North and an economic target in Colombo on the night of October 28,2008. This is the seventh operation by the LTTE’s air wing since it went into action in March last year.
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Popularity: 14% [?]

SRI LANKA: Tamil Rebels Defy Siege With Aerial Bombings

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net / IPS
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

IPS Correspondents

COLOMBO, Oct 29 (IPS) – Aerial bombings carried out on the capital and a northern military base, late Tuesday night, have signalled that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) remains a fighting force — despite being besieged in its headquarters of Kilinochchi by the Sri Lankan army.

The raids, carried out using light aircraft, resulted in what officials described as ‘minor damage’ to the Kelani-Tissa power plant and came shortly after a similar attack on a military camp in Mannar.

It was in March 2007 that the rebels first revealed the existence of an ‘air wing’ to its fighting force by carrying out a bombing raid on an oil storage site and a gas plant near Colombo.

Although the army is now within two km of Kilinochchi, its units have hesitated to make a final push into the town. Its overall thrust into LTTE-held territory appears to have got bogged down by the eastern monsoon rains.
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Popularity: 17% [?]

POLITICS: U.S. Cutoff Threat Unlikely to Save Iraq Troop Pact

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net / IPS
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Analysis by Gareth Porter*

WASHINGTON, Oct 29 (IPS) – The threat by the George W. Bush administration last week to withdraw all economic and military support from the Iraqi government if it does not accept the U.S.-Iraq status of forces agreement has raised the stakes in the political-diplomatic struggle over the issue.

However, most Iraqi politicians are now so averse to any formal legitimisation of the U.S. military presence — and particularly of extraterritorial legal rights over U.S. troops in the country — that even that threat is unlikely to save the pact.

For most Iraqis the agreement is all too reminiscent of the unequal security agreement that gave military rights to British imperialism in Iraq from 1930 to 1958. The symbolism of foreign domination inherent in that historical parallel makes it risky for political party leaders and members of parliament to be seen as going along with any agreement that provides special privileges to the United States.

In a move reflecting a new sense of desperation that has overtaken U.S. officials, Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, warned Iraqi officials that they would lose a total of 16 billion dollars in assistance for the economy and Iraqi security forces unless the agreement is approved by parliament, according to a story by McClatchy newspapers reporter Leil Fadel Sunday.
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Popularity: 13% [?]

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